Árið 2021 hélt COVID-19 faraldurinn áfram að breiðast út um heiminn, á meðan Bandaríkin héldu áfram að innleiða peningaleg slökun. Eftir að Biden tók við embætti lagði hann fram útgjaldaáætlanir, þar á meðal 1,9 trilljóna efnahagslega björgun og 1,2 trilljóna innviðauppbyggingarreikning. Ofútgáfa peninga var óumflýjanleg og ýtti undir hrávöruverð, þar með talið grunnmálma. Þar á meðal hækkaði tinverð í fremstu röð.
Árið 2021 sýndi verð á tini á alþjóðlegum markaði einhliða hækkun og árleg opinber verðtilboð á tini LME hækkaði um 86 prósent. Lægsta verðið var 20.710/tonn og hæsta verðið 39.875/tonn. Meðalverðið var 31.141/tonn, með 82 prósenta hækkun-á-ári. LME birgðir hækkuðu um 8,6 prósent úr 1,860 tonnum í 2.020 tonn.
Árið 2021 má gróflega skipta þróun LME tinsverðs í tvær hækkanir, frá áramótum til loka september hækkaði verðið úr 20.970 USD/tonn í 35800 USD/tonn hlutfallslega hámark ársins, í byrjun október, lítilsháttar leiðrétting í 33400 USD/tonn lágmark, eftir það, önnur bylgja hækkandi aftur, komst í 39875 USD/tonn í lok nóvember. Síðan þá stendur áfallið til áramóta.
Svipað og LME tini verðþróun, árið 2021, Shanghai markaðurinn tini spot verð einnig út af bylgju hækkandi markaði. Tinnblettvísitalan í Shanghai hækkaði um 95 prósent á árinu. Það lægsta er 152.838 Yuan/tonn, það hæsta er 300063 Yuan/tonn, meðaltalið er 227.049 Yuan/tonn, sem er 87 prósent-frá-aukning. Birgðir á fyrra tímabili lækkuðu verulega úr 5.574 tonnum í 1.260 tonn, sem er 77 prósent lækkun.
Customs statistics show that from January to November 2021, China's tin concentrate import volume totaled 164,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 25 percent ; Refined tin imports of 4,588 tons, down 71.8 percent year on year; Refined tin exports totaled 14,000 tons, up 239 percent year on year; Net exports of refined tin totaled more than 9,000 tons. China's refined tin production totaled 214,200 tons in 2021, up 11.07 percent year on year, according to the China Non-ferrous Metals Industry Association.
Samkvæmt gögnum sem gefin voru út af World Bureau of Metals Statistics (WBMS), árið 2021, var framleiðsla hreinsaðs tins á heimsvísu 380.100 tonn og eftirspurn var 378.800 tonn, sem er lítilsháttar afgangur.
The World Bank's latest Global Economic Outlook, released in January, noted that, following a strong rebound in 2021, global economic growth is entering a period of marked slowdown due to new threats posed by novel Coronavirus variants, combined with rising inflation, debt and income inequality. Global growth is expected to slow markedly from 5.5 per cent in 2021 to 4.1 per cent in 2022, with some negative impact on base metals markets, as the release of pent-up demand in the previous phase is completed and fiscal and monetary support policies are withdrawn. As for the tin market, from the supply side, Indonesian President Joko Widodo, as the world's largest refined tin exporter, has talked about tin export twice recently. In November, he told an annual meeting of the central bank that Indonesia could halt tin exports by 2024 to attract investment in the resource processing industry. In January, he said at the 2022 G20 Business Meeting in Indonesia that he would ensure that Indonesia could meet the world's demand for tin, nickel and bauxite, not in the form of raw materials, but in the form of finished or semi-finished products with high added value. I think that the outside world may question the strength of Indonesia's policy implementation because of past experience, but at present, this is very likely to happen. On the one hand, Indonesia's aggressive development of nickel downstream production since 2015 has seen results, not only creating a lot of jobs, but also having a positive impact on its exports and trade balance. The Indonesian government is expected to apply the success of nickel to other mining products. On the other hand, when Joko's second term as president expires in 2024, he is expected to follow the development model of the nickel industry and roll out industrial policies on all mining products, including tin, in which Indonesia is dominant, before the end of his term, thus becoming a highlight of his achievements. Based on the above two factors, if conditions are mature, the Indonesian government can fully advance the implementation date of the suspension of tin export, so there will be great uncertainty in the global tin supply in the next 2-3 years. From the consumption side, according to the international Tin Industry Association estimates, in 2022, the photovoltaic industry is expected to reach 16,000 to 19,000 tons of tin, and last year, the photovoltaic industry with about 14,000 tons of tin, considerable growth. Thus, this year tin market overall consumption will continue to maintain growth.
Miðað við verð er gert ráð fyrir að lunxi muni starfa á bilinu 40,000 48,000 USD/tonn á þessu ári og Huxi mun aðlagast og sjokkera á bilinu 300.000 350.000 RMB/tonn.
