Glencore varar við offramboðskreppu kóbalts árið 2025 og útflutningsbann í Lýðveldinu Kongó eflir óróa á heimsmarkaði.

According to the Mining Network, Glencore, the world's second-largest cobalt producer, issued a "cobalt oversupply" warning on Wednesday, stating that due to the ongoing export ban in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the company may have a large amount of cobalt production that cannot be sold by the end of 2025. This statement has exacerbated market concerns about the imbalance in the supply and demand of cobalt metal. As the world's largest cobalt producer (accounting for over 70% of global supply), the Democratic Republic of the Congo implemented an export ban on cobalt prices at a nine-year low in February this year, and announced an extension of the ban to September 30th in June. This move aims to curb market oversupply, gain time to establish an export quota system, and regulate the export rights of mining companies. In its semi-annual performance report, Glencore admitted: "The extension of the export ban is expected to significantly tighten the supply of the cobalt market, accelerate inventory consumption, and thereby support prices." To cope with the ban, Glencore has suspended all cobalt sales in its operations in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, has stockpiled the output, and announced "force majeure" for some deliveries earlier this year. Although it did not disclose the specific inventory size, Glencore emphasized that it holds a conservative attitude towards sales expectations, even if no cobalt is sold throughout 2025, it will not have a significant impact on the company's financial situation. If the ban is lifted and exports resume, it will be regarded as a "positive" factor. It is worth noting that despite the export restrictions, Glencore's cobalt production in the Democratic Republic of the Congo still increased by 19% in the first half of 2024, reaching 18,900 tons. The company also raised its production target for 2025 to 42,000 to 45,000 tons (2024 was 38,200 tons). Data shows that Glencore's cobalt production in the Democratic Republic of the Congo last year reached 35,100 tons - cobalt is typically extracted as a by-product of copper mining. The cobalt price fell to an inflation-adjusted historical low in January this year, mainly due to the double blow of a surge in supply in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and weak demand in the electric vehicle industry. Over the past few years, the growth of electric vehicles (once regarded as the "savior" of cobalt demand) has fallen short of expectations, and the traditional consumer sectors (such as aerospace) have failed to offset this gap, resulting in a far greater supply than demand in the market. Apart from the cobalt crisis, Glencore also released a business adjustment signal in its financial report. Chief Executive Officer Gary Nagle hinted at the possibility that the company might eventually sell its 16.4% stake in global agricultural giant Bunge. Bunge was formed by the merger of the former Bunge company and the grain trader Viterra supported by Glencore (with a transaction amount of $34 billion). "The agricultural business does not fully align with our core business model," Nagle said. "Long-term holding of Bunge's 16.4% stake may not be in line with Glencore's strategic positioning." This statement has sparked discussions in the market about the business focus of commodity giants - in the context of energy transition, mining companies are accelerating the divestment of non-core assets and concentrating resources on key metals such as lithium and copper for new energy. As of the time of publication, the Ministry of Mines of the Democratic Republic of the Congo has not responded to Glencore's "over-supply warning", but the market generally believes that if the export ban continues, global cobalt prices may experience a phased rebound in 2025, and Glencore's inventory strategy may become a key variable affecting market fluctuations.